The First Step Act’s Risk Assessment Tool

• Urban Wire blog post: “Three Ways to Increase the Impact of the First Step Act’s Earned Time Credits”
• Urban Wire blog post: “How Can the First Step Act’s Risk Assessment Tool Lead to Early Release from Federal Prison?”
• Urban Institute brief: “Next Steps in Federal Corrections Reform: Implementing and Building on the First Step Act”
• Critical Value podcast: “The First Step Act”
• For more information about scoring and how this tool was developed, see the US Department of Justice reports from July 2019 (PDF), January 2020 (PDF), June 2020 (PDF), December 2020 (PDF), and January 2021 (PDF).
• For an assessment of the initial implementation of the First Step Act, see the First Step Act Independent Review Committee report from December 2020.

The Federal Bureau of Prisons uses PATTERN to help determine who is eligible for early release from federal prison. For people not disqualified based on their offenses, eligibility for early release is a function of risk level. Only people who score as low or minimum risk for both general and violent recidivism are eligible for early release, either into prerelease custody (i.e., home confinement or a halfway house) or community supervision. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the bureau has used the PATTERN score as one factor (PDF) in determining who is granted early release to home confinement.

In January 2020, the Bureau of Prisons updated PATTERN based on public feedback, adding new risk factors and removing others, changing how those factors are weighted, and revising the scoring. In January 2021, BOP corrected several errors (PDF). We’ve updated this tool accordingly. Complete definitions of each risk factor are available in appendix A of the 2020 Review and Revalidation of the First Step Act Risk Assessment Tool report.

Because the risk factors for reoffending can differ by gender, men and women are scored slightly differently. Also, PATTERN assesses two types of risk scores: one for general recidivism and one for violent recidivism. The table below shows how the general and violent risk scores correspond with the general and violent risk categories for men and women. For someone to be eligible for early release, their general and violent risk categories must both be minimum or low.

The First Step Act also requires that a person earn enough time credits to at least equal their remaining sentence to be eligible for early release. For release to home confinement or a halfway house, a person must maintain a low or minimum risk score for at least two assessment cycles. For supervised release, a person must have a low or minimum risk score for the last reassessment. Prison wardens can approve early release for anyone, regardless of risk level. The Bureau of Prisons must conduct periodic reassessments and include dynamic factors, such as the number of programs completed, so that people can move from higher to lower levels of risk.

This feature was funded by Arnold Ventures and the Urban Institute. We are grateful to Arnold Ventures and to all our funders, who make it possible for Urban to advance its mission. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders. Funders do not determine research findings or the insights and recommendations of our experts. More information on our funding principles is available here. Read our terms of service here.